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Published October 2007

Key features of this detailed 107 page market study:

Understand where "the next billion" mobile subscribers are coming from:

·         Who are they?

·         Where do they live?

·         How much money are they likely to spend over the next 5 years?

·         Detailed regional growth forecasts highlight key growth markets

·         Identify the top 10 growth markets, home to 1.5 billion future mobile subscribers

·         Detailed demographic analysis

·         Analyze ARPU and revenue forecasts to 2011

·         Understand rural network deployment business models and new initiatives

·         Low-cost handset market developments

About this market study

Since the first mobile phones reached the hands of consumers at the end of the 1980s, it took approximately 15 years for the first 25 percent of the human race to subscribe to mobile services, then the next 25 percent look set to sign up in just 4 short years. By mid 2008 the world is forecast to cross the highly significant 50 percent penetration mark. This detailed market study looks at where the growth is set to come from after that. Who will be "the next billion"? Who are they, where do they live and how much money will they have to spend on mobile services? This in-depth market study will answer these questions complete with detailed demographic analysis of the top growth markets and the strategies network operators are using to penetrate those populations.

This report has studied the so-called 'next billion' in detail and we have identified the following:

·         They are actually 1.5 billion in number

·         They will take the world from 50 percent penetration to 75 percent penetration in just 4 years

·         65 percent of them live in Asia, not in Africa as many previously expected

·         Almost 70 percent of them live in largely rural communities

We have studied the top 10 growth markets of the next 4 years and we have identified that 9 out of 10 of those markets have one key defining factor in common - they are all low income per-capita markets compared to the wealthy nations that have made up the bulk of the first 3 billion mobile subscribers.

We look at these country markets in detail and identify the extent of the urban and rural communities in these countries. We look in detail at the one wealthy nation among the top 10 - the United States. This report explains how the wealthiest nation in the world is forecast to be the third biggest growth market of the next 4 years, and what that is worth in financial terms. The report forecasts subscriber growth, ARPU to 2011 and service revenues from 2006 to 2011, as the US marches towards a USD 200 billion Dollar market.

The report analyzes what strategies are being used to penetrate low-ARPU rural markets. As rural subscribers in India and Bangladesh head towards monthly ARPU of USD 4 or USD 3 Dollars, can MNOs maintain margins? Are there cost effective strategies for deploying mobile networks into sparsely populated rural communities with such low returns forecast? Will the sheer size of the market drive the economics forwards? We forecast that 5 of our top 10 growth markets are in South Asia. We further forecast that these 5 big Asian growth markets will add over 815 million new mobile subscribers over the next 4 years, equivalent to the entire population of the European Union, the United States, Australia and New Zealand all added together! That's 386 new mobile subscribers every minute from now until the end of 2011, 24 hours per day, 365 days per year.

Understand these exciting growth opportunities and the billions of Dollars in service revenues that will be generated. Analyze low-cost handset strategies, network sharing business models, tariff structures and services tailored to rural consumers, the opportunities for non-voice services, SMS, Internet access and other VAS. Al this and more is covered in detail in this essential new market report.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Demographic Analysis: Defining the Next Billion, who they are and where they live

China

India

United States of America

Pakistan

Nigeria

Brazil

Indonesia

Bangladesh

Mexico

Iran

Business Models to Penetrate Low-Income Populations

Introduction

Case Study 1: America Movil

Case Study 2: Telefonica Moviles

Case Study 3: China Mobile

Case Study 4: Smart Communications

Case Study 5: Bharti Airtel

Case Study 6: Rural Payphones

Conclusion

Low-Cost Handset Initiatives

Overview

Initiatives by Handset Vendors

Initiatives by Chip-Set Vendors and other OEMs

Initiatives by Mobile Operators

Conclusion

Developments – Mobile Technology and Infrastructure

Case Study 1: Nokia Siemens Networks Village Connection

Case Study 2: Mobile Infrastructure Sharing

Case Study 3: Alternative Sources of Power

Case Study 4: Next Generation Mobile Base Stations

Case Study 5: Low Frequency Spectrum CDMA 450

Worldwide Regulatory Scenari

Regulatory Scenario – India

Regulatory Scenario – Pakistan

Regulatory Scenario – Nigeria

Conclusion

Appendices

Glossary

Portio Research Classifications

About the Authors

Also available from Portio Research Limited

Published October 2007