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Digital Music Futures 2007-2011


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Published January 2007

 

Understanding the 'Clash of the Titans' as the worlds of music and mobile collide.

 

Key features of this 157 page market study:

 

·         Understand the changing dynamics of the music retail industry

·         Analyse the shift from physical CD sales to digital downloads

·         Examine the rising force in MP3-enabled mobile phones

·         Understand the likely outcome of the upcoming 'Clash of the Titans'

·         Study market share and competitive positioning among the major players

·         Analyse the relationships between the big players and how markets might develop to a win-win situation for all

·         Look at consumer behaviour and consider possible future scenarios

 

About this market study

 

Following six years of decline from a high of USD$39.7 billion in 2000 to just USD$32.1 billion in 2006, we believe that the value of the global music market is set to reverse and grow again back to USD$38.8 by 2011. In 2006 the major mobile handset manufacturers (Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, LG and others) have been shipping MP3 enabled handsets in some volumes. At the same time, many mobile network operators (MNOs) have started to distribute MP3 enabled phones and launch OTA (over-the-air) music download services (Vodafone, Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile, Cingular, DoCoMo, SKT, O2, Orange and many more) thus creating a new digital music consumption market.

 

In the portable digital music device market, Apple has continued to produce new models of its highly successful iPod, and while the iPod leads the market, alternative MP3 players have continued to proliferate world wide. In November 2006, Microsoft launched its rival digital music player – Zune. Sales so far have not been outstanding, but this signifies a major move by a very major player, and this has brought further interest to the digital music player market.

 

On the Internet, the growth of social networking sites has been astronomical, and two of the most interesting new sites where new artists could promote their songs and videos were bought by global brands. Analysts could not initially understand why News Corporation bought MySpace for USD$560m in 2005. However, this looked positively cheap compared to the USD$1.65bn that Google paid for YouTube in October 2006.

 

Almost every major development in the global music industry in recent years has been with digital music. As many big brands have entered the market with significant technical experience and substantial marketing budgets, we see the next few years as the ‘Clash of the Titans’. As these huge brand names - music companies, consumer electronics manufacturers, mobile network operators, mobile handset vendors and of course all manner of advertisers - meet and compete in this growing market, this report looks at how these players are positioned to build themselves presence in the digital music market over the next five years. No doubt there will be winners and losers in this battle, but the overall effect of the interest of so many major global corporations will be renewed market growth. This report forecasts the expansion of the digital music market between 2007-2011.

 

Purpose of this study:

 

The purpose of this study is to forecast the future market for digital music for the different competing technologies.

 

Offering you the exceptional value of 2 reports for the price of 1, the study looks at both the consumer device market and the content (music downloads) market.

 

The report covers:

 

·         The growth of the MP3-enabled mobile phone and the position of mobility within the broader music industry

·         The performance of the dedicated MP3 player

·         The future of retail music sales (CDs and other formats) online and offline (physical in-store retail)

·         The download markets for both mobile and Internet

·         The pricing of digital music

·         The importance of music to the mobile telecoms industry and the impact of digital music on 3G services

·         The positioning of major players and advertising opportunities in the digital music market

·         And much more!  

 

Table of Contents

 

Contents

 

Executive Summary

Music Playing Devices

Pricing

Music content

Music portals

Music CD retailing in-store and via the internet

Mobile Handset vendors

Usability

Advertising

Mobile music versus Internet music

Clash of the Titans

 

Introduction

Purpose of the Study

Research Methodology

- Device Forecasting

- Digital Music forecasting

- Current Adoption Rate

 

Demographic and Geographic issues

Introduction

Digital Infrastructure

Wealth

The link between youth and music

Growing Populations

- What music will the Chinese and Indians want to listen to?

Conclusions

 

Digital music consumption media

Solid state music players

- iPods

- Other MP3 Players

- MP3 Player Summary

 

Mobile Handsets

 

Music enabled mobile handsets

- Total Mobile handset volumes

- Music enabled mobile phones in Northern and Western Europe

- Music enabled mobile phones in the Middle East and Africa

- Music enabled mobile phones in Developed Asia Pacific Countries

- Music enabled mobile phones in Developing Asia Pacific Countries

- Music enabled mobile phones in North America

- Music enabled mobile phones in Central and Latin America

- Low functionality phones

- Average replacement rates of phones

- Problems with music-enabled handsets

 

Mobile Games Consoles

Laptops and other portable computers

Digital Audio Broadcast radio

 

Commercial Structure of Music Industry

Record Labels

Physical Retail Music Sales

Digital Retail Music

- Internet

- Mobile ‘Over-the-Air’ Music Download Providers

- Peer-to-Peer Digital Music

- Illegal Music sharing (e.g. Using Limewire)

 

Digital Music Pricing

Internet Music Pricing

- iTunes Store Prices

- Zune pricing

- Napster

- eMusic

- Real Music Store

- Real Rhapsody

- Nokia

Mobile Operator Internet Portals

- Vodafone

- 3

Mobile Over-the-air Music Prices

- Per track payment model

- Bundled payment model

Advertising subsidized music

Per track versus Bundling price models

- Assumptions

Future pricing trends

 

Music Market Size and Share

Digital Music Market

- Internet

- Mobile OTA

- Mobile OTA Market in Northern & Western Europe

- Mobile OTA Market in Central & Eastern Europe

- Mobile OTA Market in Middle East and Africa

- Mobile OTA Market in Asia Pacific Developed Region

- Mobile OTA Market for Asia Pacific Developing Region

- Mobile OTA Market in North America

- Mobile OTA Market in Latin America

Ringtones

 

Clash of the Titans: The Battle for Digital Music

Introduction

- Music Artists

- Record Labels

- Social Network Websites

- Mobile Network Operators (MNO) and music over the air (OTA)

- On-line music portals

- Retailers (Music stores, super markets and internet sales)

- MP3 devices

- MP3-enabled Handsets

 

The battle for content: Record Labels and Social Networking Websites

- Rivalry between record labels

- The threat from MySpace, YouTube and other Social Networking Websites

- The threat from digital music

- The future of content

 

Mobile Network Operators

- NTT DoCoMo

- SK Telecom

- KDDI

- Verizon

- Sprint Nextel

- Cingular

- 3

- Vodafone

- The Mobile Operators Digital Music Battleground

 

Online Music Portals

- Introduction

- iTunes Store

- Napster

- eMusic

- Real

- Yahoo! Music

- Future of Music Portals

 

Clash of the retailers

- Introduction

- Opportunities for Specialist music shops

- Opportunities for Supermarkets and chains

- What is the future for Amazon and the other on-line sellers?

- The future for retailers in the digital music age

 

Mobile Handset Vendors

- Introduction

- Key Players in the Market

- The Battle of Brands

- Who Will Win?

 

MP3 Player Manufacturers

- Apple iPod

- Microsoft Zune

- Other Brands

- The Battle for MP3 Device Supremacy and the Future of the MP3 Player

 

Industry issues

The music market will grow again driven by brand, device and promotional spend

Don’t be greedy

Music Piracy

The future role and impact of advertising and other ways of subsidizing consumer music

Device substitution or proliferation

Music and Transport - Just a place to listen? Or a place to buy too?

The threat to branded digital music from YouTube, MySpace and other user generated music (and content)

Mergers and Acquisitions

 

Conclusions

 

Glossary

Companies mentioned in this report

 

Published January 2007


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